Authors: Aleksey V. Bagaryakov, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Chancellor Adviser, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)

Natalya L. Nikulina, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Head of the Sector, Institute of Economics (Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Gennady P. Bystray, Dr. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Prof., Chief Researcher (Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of RAS), Prof. of General and Molecular Physics Dept., Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin

Mariya S. Pecherkina, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Head of the Sector, Institute of Economics (Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract: In the article the innovative component of safe development of a region is considered. The definition of innovation safety of a region is provided. Indicative analysis was used to diagnose potential “points of growth” and “weak points”. The authors suggest two scenarios of development in innovation sphere and forecast the share of innovative products in the total volume of shipped products until 2020 for Sverdlovsk and Kurgan oblasts from a perspective of three scenarios.

Keywords: Innovation safety, indicative analysis, points of growth, scenarios of development, modernized method of Hurst