English (United Kingdom)Russian (CIS)
Theoretical and methodological basis of a scenario approach to modelling the matrix of financial flows in a regional system

Authors:

Ilya V. NAUMOV Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor of Statistics, Econometrics and Information Science Dept.

Abstract:

The article explores the essence of a scenario approach and discloses its special features in the course of modelling the matrix of financial flows in the territorial system. It is proved that, when implementing this approach for forecasting processes of distribution and redistribution of financial flows in a territory, the combination method should be applied due to a high degree of uncertainty of such processes. This method allows, on the one hand, establishing the relationship between institutional sectors participating in financial flows in a territory and, on the other hand, predicting possible ways of redistribution of financial flows using the methods of simulation and econometric modelling. Summarizing diverse information and ideas about the future, even intuitive and not quantifiable, is possible due to the use of modern forms of organization of expert communities’ work – foresight methods. The algorithm for scenario modelling of the matrix of financial transactions between institutional sectors in a r egion is provided.

Keywords:

MATRIX OF FINANCIAL FLOWS, REGIONAL TERRITORIAL SYSTEM, SCENARIO APPROACH

Download article

For citation: Naumov I.V. Theoretical and methodological basis of a scenario approach to modelling the matrix of financial flows in a regional system. Upravlenets – The Manager, 2017, no. 3(67), pp. 8–17.