Macroeconomic Analysis of Sverdlovsk Oblast Budget Forecast in the Context of Economic Growth in Russia
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Macroeconomic Analysis of Sverdlovsk Oblast Budget Forecast in the Context of Economic Growth in Russia

Authors:

Aleksey A. ILYUKHIN Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Professor of Political Economy Dept. Svetlana I. PONOMARYOVA Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor of Political Economy Dept. Svetlana V. ILYUKHINA Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Associate Professor of Statistics, Econometrics and Information Science Dept.

Abstract:

Searching for sources of economic growth and motivating macroeconomic agents in the context of new economic and socio-political processes in modern Russia are the major priorities of economics. Implementation of global projects of new industrialization is impossible without public authorities and private investors providing joint financial support. The main problem of regional budgets is that they suffer from chronic shortage of funds. The article deals with macroeconomic issues of budget optimization of a large industrial region. The authors perform a macroeconomic analysis of the main aspects of Sverdlovsk oblast budget forecast until 2030 as the basis of the economic growth strategy. We apply qualitative and quantitative methods of statistical analysis: time series, correlation-regression analysis and econometric modelling of the forecast of the main budget indicators. We examine theoretical-methodological aspects of interrelation between the process of macroeconomic proportions formation and budget forecasting; look at the dynamics of analytical indicators of a long-term forecast of Sverdlovsk oblast consolidated budget in terms of total revenues, expenses and deficit for 2016–2030, and analyse the dynamics of the empirical and smoothed levels of total revenues, expenses and deficit of Sverdlovsk oblast consolidated budget for 2016–2030. The paper reveals that changing the structure of public spending should be viewed as the primary aim of long-term budgetary policy. The authors recommend to redistribute expenses that are not conducive to economic growth in favour of those pr omoting long-term growth.

Keywords: ECONOMIC GROWTH, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, BUDGET POLICY, REGIONAL BUDGET, BUDGET FORECASTING

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For citation: Ilyukhin A.A., Ponomaryova S.I., Ilyukhina S.V. Macroeconomic Analysis of Sverdlovsk Oblast Budget Forecast in the Context of Economic Growth in Russia. Upravlenets – The Manager, 2017, no. 6(70), pp. 72–79.