Управленец

2218-5003

2686-7923

10.29141/2218-5003-2024-15-2-6

QFBCLW

https://upravlenets.usue.ru/ru/-2024/1570

Эмпирическая оценка воздействия сетевых эффектов на конкурентные процессы на рынке операционных систем

An empirical assessment of the impact of network effects on competitive processes in the operating systems market

Боголюбова

Виктория Сергеевна

Боголюбова

Виктория Сергеевна

Bogolyubova

Viktoria S.

v.bogolubova@gmail.com

Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia)Московский государственный университет имени М.В. Ломоносова (г. Москва, РФ)

07052024

15279952509202320112023

CC BY-NC 4.0

Современные рынки технологий характеризуются наличием сетевого эффекта – явления, способного влиять на принятие сети потребителями. Обеспечивая преимущество от принадлежности к сети, сетевые эффекты могут, однако, оказывать сдерживающее воздействие на распространение альтернативных технологических продуктов, что может негативно отражаться на общественном благосостоянии. Статья посвящена разработке способа комплексного учета влияния прямого сетевого эффекта, критической массы и стандартизации при оценке изменения конкурентной среды на двустороннем рынке программного обеспечения, представленного операционной системой (ОС). Методологической основой исследования является теория сетевых эффектов. Метод работы – эконометрический анализ влияния установленной базы пользователей, показателей смены стандарта и точки набора критической массы при помощи построения базовой внутригрупповой модели (within model) и модели с применением традиционного обобщенного метода моментов (difference GMM). Информационную базу составляют помесячные страновые данные сервиса веб-аналитики StatCounter об активности посещения web-страниц пользователями устройств desktop, mobile, tablet за период с 2009 по 2019 г. Результаты исследования показали, что под воздействием эффекта насыщения замедляется влияние сетевых эффектов. Рынок ОС, разработанных под desktop-устройства, характеризуется наличием de facto стандарта, ОС Windows, что свидетельствует о монополизации данного сегмента. Операционные системы OSX, Android, iOS являются общеотраслевыми стандартами. Предложенный подход делает возможным анализ прямого сетевого эффекта в совокупности с набором критической массы пользователей и сменой стандарта.

Modern technology markets are characterized by the presence of a network effect, a phenomenon that significantly affects network adoption. While providing the advantage of belonging to a network, network effects can curb the diffusion of alternative technological products, which can negatively influence public welfare. The purpose of this article is to work out a method of a compound impact analysis of direct network effect, critical mass and standardization when assessing changes in the competitive environment on a two-sided software market using the case of operating systems (OS). The theory of network effects constitutes the methodological framework of the study. The research method is an econometric analysis of the impact of the installed base of users, switch of standards and gain of a critical mass of users by applying a basic within model and a difference GMM model. The database consists of monthly country data on website visitors’ activity from the StatCounter web analytics service by desktop, mobile, and tablet devices for the period from 2009 to 2019. The study shows that, due to the saturation effect, markets experience a slowdown in the influence of network effects. The desktop OS market is characterized by the presence of a de facto standard, that is Windows OS, which indicates the monopolization of this segment. OSX, Android, and iOS are industrywide standards. The proposed approach allows analyzing a direct network effect jointly with gain of a critical mass of users and switch of standards.

двусторонние рынки;сетевые эффекты;прямой сетевой эффект;критическая масса;установленная база;стандартизация;операционная система;конкуренция.

two-sided markets;network effects;direct network effect;critical mass;installed base;standardization;operating system;competition.

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