Управленец

2218-5003

2686-7923

10.29141/2218-5003-2025-16-1-2

https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=80429153

Детерминанты выбора глобальными корпорациями стратегии выхода из капитала российских компаний

Determinants of multinationals’ foreign divestment strategies: Evidence from Russia

Артемьева

К. А.

Артемьева

К. А.

Artemyeva

K. A.

artemyeva.kris@gmail.comРужанская

Л. С.

Ружанская

Л. С.

Ruzhanskaya

L. S.

l.s.ruzhanskaya@urfu.ruТяжельников

В. Д.

Тяжельников

В. Д.

Tyazhelnikov

V. D.

vdt9@mail.ru

Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. YeltsinУральский федеральный университет имени первого Президента России Б.Н. Ельцина

12032025

16116342810202423122024

CC BY-NC 4.0

К.А. Артемьева, Л.С. Ружанская, В.Д. Тяжельников

K.A. Artemyeva, L.S. Ruzhanskaya, V.D. Tyazhelnikov

Масштабные экономические санкции оказали существенное влияние на выбор транснациональными компаниями (ТНК) стратегии участия в российском бизнесе. Проблемы в принимающей экономике и давление со стороны стран происхождения подталкивают международных инвесторов к альтернативным стратегиям участия в капитале отечественных компаний. Несмотря на массовый уход западного бизнеса из России в 2022 г., вопрос выбора для многих компаний остается актуальным и не имеет быстрого и однозначного ответа. Статья посвящена определению факторов, влияющих на решение иностранных компаний о продолжении или завершении своей деятельности в подсанкционной российской экономике, а также на выбор стратегических альтернатив выхода или сохранения бизнеса. Методологической базой исследования послужили теории политического риска, экономического оппортунизма и положения зарождающейся концепции отказа от активов за рубежом. Эконометрическое моделирование решений глобальных корпораций в принимающей экономике проведено с помощью моделей бинарного и множественного выбора. Информационная база включает данные за 2022 г. о корпоративных решениях 1 359 компаний с иностранным участием в России. Результаты исследования показали, что, несмотря на политическое давление, экономическая успешность российского бизнеса влияет на решение иностранных инвесторов продолжить деятельность в подсанкционной экономике. Рост выручки и доли российского бизнеса в консолидированном доходе ТНК повышает вероятность того, что глобальная корпорация останется в РФ или займет выжидательную позицию. Один из ключевых выводов исследования - эффект толпы и эффект снежного кома не повышают, а снижают вероятность выхода из российских активов, как и разница в восприятии коррупции между Россией и страной происхождения глобальной корпорации. Полученные результаты важны для понимания устойчивости глобальных цепочек поставок, стратегии привлечения прямых иностранных инвестиций и поиска новых бизнес-партнеров для российских компаний в текущей геополитической ситуации.

Unprecedented economic sanctions are among key factors behind investment strategies employed by multinational corporations (MNCs) for doing business in Russia. Challenges faced by the host economy and pressure from home countries are pushing international investors towards alternative strategies of equity participation. Despite the mass exit of Western businesses in 2022, the dilemma of leaving or staying in the Russian market is still acute for many MNCs. The purpose of the article is to identify factors affecting foreign investment companies’ intention to continue or curtail their operations in the sanctioned Russian economy and the choice among strategic alternatives as to exit or keep their business in the country. Political risk theory, economic opportunism theory and the emerging concept of foreign divestment constitute the methodological basis of the study. Econometric modelling of MNCs’ decisions in the host economy is carried out using binary and multiple choice models. The empirical evidence is comprised of data for 2022 on corporate decisions of 1,359 subsidiaries located in Russia. The research results showed that, despite political pressure, economic success of Russian business units drives foreign investors to continue operating in the sanctioned economy. Growing revenues and share of the Russian branch in the MNC consolidated income raise the likelihood that the subsidiary will remain in the Russian market or take a wait-and-see position. We have found that the crowd effect and the snowball effect do not increase, but decrease the likelihood of foreign divestment from Russia, as does the different perception of corruption between Russia and the MNC’s home country. Our findings contribute to the understanding of global supply chain sustainability, strategies for attracting foreign direct investment and finding new business partners for Russian companies in the current geopolitical situation.

sanctionsrussian economymultinational corporationsubsidiariesforeign divestmentstrategic management

транснациональные корпорациидочерние компанииотказ от зарубежных активовстратегическое управлениесанкциироссийская экономика

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