Управленец2218-50032686-792310.29141/2218-5003-2025-16-4-1https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=82931587https://elibrary.ru/item.asp?id=82931587Государственное управление экономическим ростоми инновациями: эффект инвестицийв оборонные НИОКРGovernment regulation on economic growthand innovation: The effect of public investment in defence R&DКирееваЕ. Ф.КирееваЕ. Ф.KireevaE. F.efkireeva@fa.ruКараевА. К.КараевА. К.KaraevA. K.akkaraev@fa.ruFinancial University under the Government of the Russian FederationФинансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации090920251642182402202507052025CC BY-NC 4.0Е.Ф. Киреева, А.К. КараевE.F. Kireeva, A.K. Karaev

Инвестиции в исследования и экспериментальные разработки (НИОКР) - важный фактор, стимулирующий инновации и экономическое развитие. Недостаточность эмпирических исследований о влиянии оборонных НИОКР на экономический рост в России не позволяет на научной основе использовать этот фактор при формировании государственной инновационной политики. Статья посвящена изучению динамической причинно-следственной связи государственных инвестиций в НИОКР оборонного и гражданского назначения и ВВП РФ для разработки эффективных методов госуправления экономическим ростом и инновациями. Методологической базой послужили теории экономического роста и концепция целенаправленной миссия-ориентированной инновационной политики. Метод исследования - вейвлет-когерентный анализ с использованием непрерывных вейвлет-преобразований. Он позволяет оценить интенсивность нелинейной связи на базе показателя вейвлет-когерентности и направления связи с учетом разности фаз между оборонными и гражданскими НИОКР и ВВП на разных временных масштабах. Информационную базу составили данные Министерства финансов РФ: ВВП, государственные расходы на потребление и инвестиции за 2005-2023 гг. Установлено, что в среднесрочной перспективе увеличение оборонных НИОКР приводит к росту ВВП и связано с мультипликативным эффектом инновационного развития национальной экономики. Государственные инвестиции в НИОКР выступают стимулом агрегированного спроса и способны обеспечить движение к новым технико-экономическим парадигмам, не возникающим спонтанно из рыночных сил. Результаты исследования углубляют научное понимание роли оборонных и гражданских НИОКР в контексте стимулирования экономического роста и могут быть использованы при формировании стратегий научно-технической и экономической политики.

Investment in research and development (R&D) is an important factor in stimulating innovation and economic upturn. A lack of empirical studies concerning the impact of defence R&D on economic growth in Russia precludes the scientifically grounded use of this factor in shaping state innovation policy. The article examines the dynamic cause-and-effect relationship between public investment in defence and civilian R&D and Russia's GDP to work out effective state regulation methods to manage economic growth and innovation. Economic growth theory and the concept of mission-oriented innovation policy constitute the methodological basis of the study. The key research methods are wavelet coherence analysis and continuous wavelet transform that allow assessing the intensity of the non-linear relationship based on the wavelet coherence index and the direction of the relationship considering the phase difference between defence and civilian R&D and GDP on different time scales. The evidence base covers data from the RF Ministry of Finance, including GDP and government expenditure on consumption and investment in 2005-2023. It was found that in the medium term an increase in defence R&D leads to GDP growth and is associated with the multiplier effect of innovation development of the national economy. Public investment in R&D acts as a stimulus to aggregate demand and can drive the transition to new technical-economic paradigms that do not emerge spontaneously from market forces. The research findings deepen the scientific understanding of the role of defence and civilian R&D in stimulating economic growth and can be utilized to formulate science, technology, and economic policy.

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