Authors:

P.A. Mikhnenko

Bauman University, Moscow, Russia

Abstract:

The study addresses the problem of evaluating innovation projects efficiency under multidimensional uncertainty using the real options method. The paper seeks to systematize current trends and developments in the method, identify theoretical- methodological gaps, and substantiate directions for its modification in view of multiple types of uncertainty, the specific nature of valuation objects, and the institutional characteristics of emerging markets. The research methodology is based on a systematic literature review in accordance with PRISMA guidelines and includes a bibliometric analysis of 246 international publications from the Scopus database for 2023–2026, a thematic analysis of 62 most relevant articles, and a comparative analysis of 61 Russian publications from the eLibrary database. Based on keyword co-occurrence maps, six thematic clusters were identified in both international and Russian research literature. The study distinguishes between four types of uncertainty (economy and politics, climate policy, geopolitical risk, technological and market), four categories of valuation objects (R&D and patents, green and climate innovations, digital assets and AI technology, ESG investment), and three directions of method hybridization (with game theory, multi-criteria analysis, and machine learning). The key gaps identified include the absence of models integrating multiple types of uncertainty; insufficient attention to the specific features of new valuation objects; neglect of behavioural factors and institutional context; and the fragmented nature of hybrid approaches. The scientific novelty lies in the development of a conceptual framework for a modified real options method that combines a composite uncertainty index, typologically sensitive parameterization of valuation objects, and a unified architecture of hybrid methodological tools. The proposed framework allows adapting the method to emerging market conditions and can serve as a theoretical basis for creating practical tools for evaluating innovation projects in the Russian institutional environment.

Keywords: real options; innovation projects; uncertainty; composite index; efficiency evaluation; hybrid methodology; conceptual model; institutional context; emerging markets.

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For citation: Mikhnenko P.A. (2026). The real options method in innovation project evaluation: Gaps and modification. Upravlenets / The Manager, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 2–15. DOI: 10.29141/2218-5003-2026-17-5-1. EDN: UWPQSU.