Authors:

E.G. Leonidova

Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Vologda, Russia

Abstract:

Structural imbalances in a regional labour market represent a critical challenge for the system of public administration under external constraints. The purpose of the study is to identify structural imbalances in the labour market of the Northwestern Federal District (NWFD) of Russia as an object of public administration, for which this issue is of particular salience due to its complex internal structure. The research is grounded in the theory of labour force reproduction. A methodological toolkit comprising comparative analysis, economic and statistical methods, and a proprietary method for assessing potential workforce displacement is employed. The empirical base includes data from the RF Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) for 2000–2024, relevant federal ministries, and results of expert surveys. Our analysis reveals a number of systemic imbalances, including demographic contraction, a growing mismatch between graduates’ qualifications and the needs of technologically advanced enterprises, and highly uneven spatial distribution of robotization and job vacancies across the district. A key paradoxical finding is that, alongside the current acute labour shortage, there is a significant potential for workforce displacement in core industries in the medium term. The study concludes that mitigating socio-economic risks in the context of labour market transformation requires a proactive approach to managing the entire labour resource value chain, covering the stages of workforce formation, distribution, and utilization. We propose specific policy directions, encompassing synchronization of automation incentives with retraining programmes, realignment of the vocational education system with market demands, and the development of tools for spatial balancing the NWFD’s human resource potential.

Keywords: public administration; structural imbalances in the labour market; robotization; labour resources; potential for workforce displacement; regional policy; the Northwestern Federal District.

For citation: Leonidova E.G. (2026). Structural imbalances in the labour market of Northwest Russia through the lens of public administration. Upravlenets / The Manager, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 99–113. DOI: 10.29141/2218-5003-2026-17-3-7. EDN: KITBIX.

Article info: received February 25, 2026; received in revised form April 24, 2026; accepted May 5, 2026