Authors: Yelena V. Chistova, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), Sr. Researcher, Institute of Economics (Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences)

Gennady P. Bystray, Dr. Sc. (Physics and Mathematics), Professor of General and Molecular Physics Dept., Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin

Sergey A. Okhotnikov, Jr. Lecturer of General and Molecular Physics Dept., Ural Federal University named after the First President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin

Abstract. The paper examines the availability of foodstuffs through domestic production and intensification of import substitution in the food industry. The situation and dynamics of volume and structure of food import are presented. The paper analyses the possibilities of import substitution in the food industry under obligations to the World Trade Organization and worsening international situation in the case of the Ural Federal district. The development of the food industry is simulated over the time series, taking into account the dynamics of functioning of industries in the district. The prediction is made on the basis of the modernized method of Hurst. The application of this model system allows constructing a time series at certain intervals, taking into account the time of the reliable forecast. The paper considers the positive and negative aspects of import substitution in the food industry.

Keywords: food industry, import substitution, the WTO, food embargo, region, modelling

For citation: Yelena V. Chistova, Gennady P. Bystray, Sergey A. Okhotnikov. Import Substitution in the Food Industry under Conditions of the Worsening International Situation. Upravlenets – The Manager, 2016, no. 1(59), pp. 58–65.